제122조 10% 조항, 2026년 7월 24일 일몰: 미국 장비 가격이 하락할까?
The headline number is 10%. The story your CFO wants is whether equipment landed cost actually moves on July 25.
Section 122, the balance-of-payments emergency tariff in effect since February 24, 2026, expires after 150 days unless Congress votes to extend. That clock runs out on or around July 24. For US buyers running fleet decisions now, the question is not "what does Section 122 cost me today" but "do I close this PO in May, wait for July 25, or assume Congress extends and price accordingly."
The math is layered. Section 122 is a flat 10% on most goods entering the US. On top of that, Section 232 levies a 50% rate on items made entirely or substantially of steel or aluminum, 25% on derivatives, and 15% on industrial and electrical grid equipment containing those metals. Softwood and timber components pick up another 10-25% depending on classification. For a telehandler chassis, undercarriage, boom, and counterweight, all primarily steel, Section 232 50% is the dominant exposure, not Section 122.
Even if Section 122 sunsets on schedule, the structural cost overhang on US-imported telehandlers does not collapse. Section 232 stays. The reduction from 30% IEEPA to 10% Section 122 earlier this year already happened, and that was the headline relief. The July 24 sunset, if it lands, gives you a 10-point delta on the duty side and leaves the steel surcharge untouched.
| 변수 | US-Built (JLG, Genie, Skytrak) | 중국 공장 직송 | EU-Built Imported (Manitou, Merlo) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-Aug 2026 US-landed surcharge | Section 232 input cost pass-through, no Section 122 | Section 122 10% + Section 232 50% on steel content | Section 122 10% + Section 232 50% if steel content qualifies |
| Post-July 24 surcharge if sunset holds | Same input cost pass-through | Section 232 50% remains, Section 122 gone | Section 232 50% remains, Section 122 gone |
| FOB price band (12K-class telehandler, 2026) | $95K-$135K ex-works | $42K-$65K ex-works | $115K-$165K ex-works |
| Parts and service network in US | Dense | Sparse, expanding | Mid, dealer-dependent |
| Lead time (config order) | 8-14 weeks | 10~16주 | 12-22 weeks |
The pull-quote your procurement memo needs: the Section 122 sunset is a 10-point ducking maneuver, not a cost reset. The Section 232 50% steel surcharge is the wall, and it does not move on July 25.
For non-US destinations, the analysis flips. If you are importing telehandlers into Nigeria, Kazakhstan, Brazil, or any market outside the US tariff zone, Section 122 and Section 232 never applied to your transaction. The relevant variable is destination-country import duty, VAT, and FX. Chinese factory-direct lands in those markets at the FOB band shown above plus destination duty and freight, with no US-side overhang at all.
If your fleet plan is US-only:
- Short-term project (under 12 months, 1-5 units): hold until early July and watch for extension signals from the Office of Trade Negotiations. If extension looks likely, close the PO before July 24 to lock in the 10% rather than risk a higher rate.
- Long-term fleet (12-36 months, 10+ units): the Section 232 50% is your real exposure. Section 122 is noise. Negotiate cost-pass-through clauses in dealer contracts now, regardless of what happens to Section 122.
- Rental company (ROI and utilization focus): the cost of carry on a deferred PO is roughly 0.8-1.2% per month at current commercial paper rates. If a deferred PO saves you 10 points of duty, the deferral pays for itself. If it does not, the cost of capital eats the marginal saving.
If your fleet plan spans US and non-US destinations:
- Run a landed-cost comparison per destination, not a global average. The US line and the non-US lines move on different fundamentals.
- Where non-US destinations dominate by unit count, the China-direct route is structurally cheaper and not exposed to the Section 122 and 232 stack. The break-even on switching part of your sourcing mix to factory-direct often comes from 5-12 unit volumes, not 50+.
The trade-off you should not pretend away: JLG, Manitou, and Merlo each have dense dealer networks, training programs, and warranty coverage in the US and EU. Chinese factory-direct units land at lower FOB but parts logistics and service depth are uneven, especially in less-developed dealer regions. The mitigation buyers should negotiate up front is a factory-direct parts pack covering 12-24 months of typical wear items, plus contract language locking in delivery windows for service kits. Those terms are negotiable at the factory level in a way they are not negotiable through a US OEM dealer.
The July 24 date will arrive faster than your fleet plan can be rewritten. Decisions you defer past mid-June effectively assume Section 122 extends. That is a planning bet, not a financial hedge. If you are running a multi-destination fleet plan, a US-versus-non-US landed-cost comparison this month, factory-direct against dealer-route, is the cheapest piece of due diligence on the table.
